Well...I was hoping to have some better news but it looks like it was "Wash...Rinse...Repeat" for Day2. We were down to 7 tables and they were only paying 27 as they did not have as many players...although I think they had over 400. I am sitting on 32.5k with the blinds at 300/1000/2000...16-17 BBs. I look down at AKh FTB and all of a sudden some guy in MP raises to 16k and has me covered ...WTF???? I felt that he did not want any resistance so I had him on A-Q or AJ. I cannot call here. Its either ship it or fold. I jam...he turns over 10-10...you know the drill. I would really like some feedback here as I think I probably should have sniffed out 10-10 or J-J...some mid-pair. I really did not want to flip for my tournament life here, but I felt I had to make a stand somewhere and needed to double up. Also, I had played with this player all tournament and really felt he was one of the weaker players at our table. With that being said...There were some really good players at my table all day. Thoughts...comments?? Should I have folded?
What else? ...Came down early yesterday and played 1-2nl next to Jermaine Williams...you'll may remember him from LSU/Buccaneers/Cowboys...really cool guy. It was funny as he is from Donaldsonville...and we happen to be sitting next to each other.
Got to hang out with Lusky and Virge last night as they came pick me up after the tourney. Their house is really nice. We went to the Wynn looking for their other poker playing roommate...and had some dinner. I really enjoyed seeing those guys again.
I think we may do a change of scenery today and go play the Ceasers event...I don't know
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4 comments:
Gene, thanks for the updates. I'm living vicariously.
And no, you should not be folding AKs with 16 BBs. That would be ridiculous - especially to a MP open from a player who is prob opening {88+, AJo+} and maybe a much wider range than this. Plus, that 8x open lends credence to your read of weakness. Folding would be a huge mistake here. Just stick it in there. You made the right play.
Specifically, when you shove 32.5k, you are doing it to win a pot of 70k+ so by shoving you're giving yourself over 2:1. Thus, even if he is only opening/calling the absolute tightest range of JJ/QQ/KK/AA, then you are STILL getting way the right price to move it in. You only need ~32% equity with the exact odds you're giving yourself in this spot. AKs has 38% equity against JJ/QQ/KK/AA. That's a 6% edge (big!) and one you just can't pass up, especially considering your stack size and the fact that this is essentially a premium hand. This doesn't even factor in 88-TT or any of the AJ/AQ/AK combos. So when you add those in there, it's a no-brainer shove.
Don't sweat it. Just run better :)
Maybe someone else can make an argument for folding, but I can't imagine that it would be correct.
Good luck the rest of the trip and keep us posted.
Reid is 100%correct. In my opinion you do not deserve to win a tournament if you ever make this fold. It is very rare that you will ever be dominated in this spot. Your read of AQ or AJ is virtually the same as him having 1010 or 99 or something like that. You are not really short there but you are not far from it in my opinion. You likely will not find a better spot to shove in the next few orbits and and when you do all that will be accomplished is your stack will be about 10k shorter...Bottome line to win those things you have to win those hands sometime. GL on the rest of your trip.
No doubt you jam with AK in this spot. As a matter of fact, its a high five the monitor shove (wait this is live...high five your neighbor) What Reid said is correct, he is just smarter than I am and made it sound more sophisticated. And lol at the 8x open raise. Thats always (98% of time) 77-JJ or A10/AJ. Next time just hit an Ace or King. And I am jealous. Vegas > Gulfport
good luck!
He opened 8x bb? You decided he was weaker than AKsuited? Everyone seems to over rate the value of AK...I am one of those people...AK is as good as 7-2 when faced with a RAISE to 8x the bb! Are the odds there to call? Yep, but what can you hit to win here...three aces, three kings...that's if he/she does not have pocket aces or kings...or how about hitting Q 10 J, or three suited cards under a 7 because then he might hit his set and the board may pair on the turn or river. Shoving back at a raise like that with AKs...was the right move. So no more nightmares...you have many more outs, as long as you are not up against Aces or Kings and usually someone with that hand will not open 8x the bb.
Stay Frosty!
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