Friday, February 09, 2007

Variance is humbling

As you can tell by the title, variance has been brutal to me in the past 3 months. Just yesterday I was in a hand that had a $1000.00 pot 4 ways where I flopped a straight against a set, and 2 flush draws and the dealer pairs the board on the river. I did the research on the hand and after the turn I was a 67% favorite. We had just started the table and it was the 4th hand. We all had to start with $300.00. Below is the hand:

I am on the button with 10-6 of spades and 4 of us limp. In the hand there was me, sailor, spoon and a rough looking fellow I had never seen before. The flop comes 9-8-7 with 2 clubs. There is a raise, re-raise ans spoon calls from the cut-off. I ship it in to try to take the pot down right there. Call...call...and spoon goes in the tank. He basically tells everyone he has a nut flush draw, but calls anyway. Spoon has A9c, Sailor has KJc and rough guy has a set of 8's. Like I said earlier, the board pairs on the river with another 7.

I am sick that all 3 of these people new someone had to have a straight, yet they all called knowing they were behind. Oh well...

Last night I played in the weekly Thursday night tournament at the Isle of Capri in Lake Charles. It was a $30.00 but-in with $20.00 re-buys/add-0ns. 65 people showed up. I dumped $90 dollars in the tournament and got down to the last 5. there was $3350.00 dollars in the prize pool, and first place was $1350.00. I got Aces cracked with 2 people all in to bust us down to the last 5. There was one big stack only because he went head up with a big stack. I had the second biggest stack with the leader having me covered by over half.

Once the negotiation started the big stack says we will take $1000.00. Once the other 4 of us chopped the rest we would all get $440.00. I did not want to make the deal. Something was eating at me giving $1000.00 to the big stack "un-contested". They convinced me that it was a good deal, and I had that "Urban Legend" rolling around in my head also that..."The person that usually refuses the chop is the next one that bust out". Sort of a Karma thing. I agree...and thats that. Makes up for the lost on the huge pot above.

Peace...

"Allegedly, your situation, for you, would be concurrently improved, if I had two hundred dollars in my back pocket right now"
Ben Afflecks Character Chucky in "Good Will Hunting"

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